Armed conflicts tend to escalate when the disaster induces shifts in relative power, whereby one conflict party (usually the rebels) subsequently scales up its military efforts.
Furthermore, only countries highly vulnerable to disasters experienced changes in conflict dynamics. After climate-related disasters, 29 percent of these armed conflicts escalated, 33 percent de-escalated, and 38 percent did not change. Quantitative and qualitative data are presented for twenty-one cases across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) investigates how major climate-related disasters shape the dynamics of ongoing armed conflicts. Disasters play a key role in debates about climate change, environmental stress, and security.
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